Summer 2026, I learned to trust what no one had named yet: xG

Summer 2026, in Marseille, I learned to trust what no one had named yet: xG. Forty years covering football for the French market, I've witnessed countless statistical tools emerge and fade into oblivion. But xG was different. It wasn't a single number—it was an entirely new way of seeing the game. The problem was, at the time, no one believed in it. I was 57, working as a transfer market administrator in Marseille, when Opta released the first xG table for Ligue 1. Colleagues said I was slow to react. Perhaps. But with 50 years of experience, I had learned one thing: never trust a new metric just because it's trending. I manually recorded over 1,200 shots from 20 teams in the first half of the 2026-18 season, then cross-referenced them with actual goals. The correlation coefficient reached 0.84. Enough for me to build my own striker valuation database. Enough for me to believe. World Cup 2026, a sports publication invited me to contribute to the tournament in Russia. I was 58, tracking 64 matches and counting each team's PPDA. In the semi-final Croatia - England, Croatia allowed England only 8.2 passes per defensive action, while England gave Croatia 12.5. Modric controlled the midfield with 143 passes, 40% higher than any opponent midfielder. Mandzukic scored the decisive goal in extra time. Croatia won the tournament with low PPDA. Many analysts said PPDA was meaningless. But for me, it was evidence. Croatia wins the tournament with low PPDA? Then PPDA is still just one letter, not a complete answer. By 2026, I was 60, sitting in Marseille analyzing 81 Bundesliga matches behind closed doors after the pandemic. Home teams won only 26%, compared to 43% before lockdown. Le Havre used this data to negotiate a lower price for a young striker who had performed outstandingly at home. Empty stadiums are the finest laboratory for data enthusiasts. I began separating home and away statistics in every analysis table. Croatia wins with low PPDA? Then PPDA is still just one letter. But I worship no metric. Current models overvalue youth potential and undervalue dressing room chemistry. Club IPOs convert fan emotions into money, financial reporting pressure weighing on sporting decisions. In esports, professionalization is turning players into assembly-line products, individual play styles being smoothed away through digital training. I am 66 years old, old enough to know that numbers never tell stories unless we ask. Players are variables, the market is a function, but most of my life has been a constant. There are matches won on the pitch but lost on the data sheet. I choose the data sheet. A canceled match isn't a lost point—it's a lost journal page. I have spent 50 years watching football to understand: Vietnamese fans are gradually approaching data-driven analysis instead of following only emotions. That is significant progress.