Jokic scores 8, Serbia still beats Italy: When roster depth outshines the superstar

When Nikola Jokic scores only 8 points in a World Cup qualifying game, many would assume Serbia is in trouble. But on Tuesday night in Pesaro, the opposite happened. Serbia defeated Italy 76-64 on the road, closing the fourth quarter 19-10, and ended a four-game losing streak against this opponent. Jokic, a perennial NBA MVP, finished with 8 points and 8 rebounds — a "disappearing" stat line by his standards. But alongside him, Aleksa Avramovic scored 20 and Marko Guduric added 19. Serbia did not need its superstar to erupt to win. That is the most frightening signal for the rest of the group. Context: Serbia entered the November window second in Group J, while Italy sat just behind with the same win tally. The head-to-head record favored Italy, who had won the last four meetings. Moreover, Italy played at home in front of the Pesaro crowd, after suffering an upset loss in the previous round. Serbia, despite having Jokic, were viewed as underdogs because of inconsistent production from their non-NBA players. Coach Dusan Alimpijevic understood that relying solely on Jokic would lose. This victory therefore carried double value: it released psychological pressure and confirmed a collective team system in the true European style. The core of the game was the fourth quarter. Italy led 54-57 after three quarters, and all eyes turned to Jokic, who had only 6 points. But Serbia accelerated defensively. They pushed Nico Mannion, Italy's primary creator, away from the three-point line, forcing him to dribble and take difficult shots. The result: Italy managed just 10 points in the final ten minutes. Meanwhile, Avramovic and Guduric attacked the rim repeatedly. Avramovic scored 12 in the fourth quarter, exploiting offensive rebounds. Guduric, with cold-blooded mid-range shots, sealed the win. Jokic, despite scoring little, still drew 2-3 Italian defenders whenever he caught the ball, creating space for teammates. His 8 rebounds show he was still engaged. Data does not lie, but the one who reads data is what matters. If you only look at points, you say Jokic was invisible. If you see how Italy had to collapse on him, you understand this game was a hidden masterpiece. Deeper analysis: Avramovic and Guduric are not unfamiliar names in FIBA. Avramovic, 31, made noise at the Tokyo Olympics with his fiery style. Guduric, 30, is a versatile offensive player who knows how to position himself. Their combination creates a scoring duo that no team in Group J can match. When Jokic was contained, they became primary weapons, and Serbia showed they are not a one-man team. This matters more than any tactic, because in major tournaments stars are always targeted. Teams with a Plan B survive. Serbia just proved they have Plan B and even Plan C. Look at Italy's stats. Mannion scored 20, Fontecchio added 15, but these numbers came in a stagnant offense. Italy depended too much on Mannion, who had to create his own shot in the final period. Italy's coach had no effective alternative, leading to collapse in the fourth. Serbia, by contrast, distributed the ball evenly. That is why they won. Another important detail: Nikola Milutinov. The center suffered an injury in the second quarter and left the court, but later returned. His comeback strengthened the interior defense and helped Serbia control rebounds late. However, his injury is a warning. Serbia must manage his minutes carefully, as losing Milutinov would thin their frontcourt. Crisis does not ask who is ready, but it filters the winners. Italy is sliding after two consecutive losses. They remain third in Group J at 5-3, but their path to qualification is narrowing. Serbia, at 6-2, are almost guaranteed a World Cup 2027 spot. The story of this game is not just the score, but how a team handles pressure when their star cannot shine. I have followed many Serbia qualifying games. Usually they revolve around Jokic, and when he scores little, they struggle. This game was a deliberate exception. Coach Alimpijevic clearly designed a game plan where Jokic acted as a decoy, drawing Italy's defense apart to allow cuts. Evidence: Jokic attempted only 7 shots, far below his NBA average of 15+. He also dished out several assists. He was not suffocated; he was freed from scoring burdens. This is where NBA media can misread. When a star scores 8 points, they scream "decline". But in international basketball, with 40-minute games, a closer three-point line, and no defensive three seconds, a center scoring little is normal if tactics require it. Jokic remains the center of every Serbia possession, just not the finisher. Data does not lie, but the one who reads data matters: 8 rebounds show he worked hard. So what does this game mean for the big picture? Serbia sent a message: to beat us, you must lock down more than one player. Avramovic and Guduric are seasoned, unafraid of pressure. They play proper FIBA basketball: physical, disciplined, selfless. If they maintain this level, Serbia will be a tough opponent at EuroBasket 2026 and World Cup 2027. But beware of over-optimism. One win over Italy, however impressive, does not guarantee Avramovic and Guduric can carry the team against elite defenses like France or Germany. Italy are transitioning generations, relying on young Mannion. Their decline may stem from internal issues, not just Serbia's excellence. In the first half, a confident Italy led and controlled tempo. Their fourth-quarter collapse could stem from fatigue or a lack of leadership. Serbia should use this win as a springboard, not delude themselves into thinking they are champions overnight. Serbia's biggest risk is not on the court, but in securing Jokic's availability for future windows. The NBA season is underway, and the Denver Nuggets will not be happy losing their anchor to qualifiers. If Jokic is absent, can Avramovic and Guduric carry the team alone? Probably not. Serbia needs a contingency plan, developing young players like Vasilije Micic or Filip Petrusev to fill scoring roles. They have a golden generation, but gold needs polishing. Italy must self-reflect. Two straight losses raise questions about tactics and integration of naturalized players. Mannion scored 20 but could not will his team to victory. Fontecchio, an NBA player, had 15. Italy lacked a true center to match Milutinov, and lost the rebounding battle. They need to find a solution for the number 5 spot before it is too late. Finally, remember that in international basketball, wins like this can create a positive psychological chain. Serbia broke the curse of four straight losses to Italy, and that has huge mental value. When these teams meet again at a major tournament, Serbia will step in with confidence, while Italy will face psychological pressure. Every statistic is a story not yet told properly. Today, Serbia's story is about depth, maturity, and the ability to win even when their brightest star does not shine. So the biggest question is not whether Serbia can win when Jokic scores little — they just proved it. The bigger question is whether they can turn this into a habit in knockout games, where every mistake costs. If Avramovic and Guduric continue to be entrusted in clutch moments, and if Jokic is willing to sacrifice scoring for the team, Serbia will not only reach World Cup 2027. They will arrive as genuine title contenders.